Iran War Predictions
The Iran War: Assessing Probabilities and the Path to Ceasefire Friday, May 24, 2026 As the fragile ceasefire between the United States, Israel, and Iran enters its seventh week, diplomatic efforts appear to be accelerating toward a more durable agreement. President Donald Trump stated this weekend that a Memorandum of Understanding is “largely negotiated,” with key issues centering on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and limitations on Iran’s nuclear program. The 2026 Iran War began on February 28 with Operation Epic Fury — a massive wave of U.S. and Israeli strikes that targeted Iranian air defenses, missile sites, nuclear facilities, and senior leadership, including the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Iran responded with missile and drone barrages, proxy activations, and disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, triggering global energy market volatility. A temporary ceasefire took effect in early April, brokered largely by Pakistan with Chinese support. Theo...