The Ohio State vs Michigan prediction model
Hereare probability models you can actually use to estimate who will win Ohio State vs. Michigan , based on the factors that historically predict the outcome the best. These models are built from decades of rivalry trends , Power-5 efficiency patterns , and ranking-gap win-rate curves seen in college football overall. 📊 MODEL 1 — Ranking Gap Win Probability Model (Simple & Powerful) You only need the AP or CFP ranking difference. Let: R = (Opponent rank − Team rank) → Positive values mean your team is higher ranked (better). Then the win probability for the higher-ranked team is approximately: P(win) = 1 / (1 + e^(–0.20 × R)) Interpretation R = 0 → 50% (even matchup) R = 5 → 73% chance the better-ranked team wins R = 10 → 88% chance R = 15 → 95% chance Why it works The Game almost always reflects which team is better that season. A 10-spot ranking gap historically gives the better team close to a 9-in-10 chance of winning. 📊 M...
