If the past six games under the similar circumstances play out again Saturday, one team is certain to win.
When Ohio State has been favored by 20 points or more in the Michigan rivalry, the games have generally resulted in dominant performances by the Buckeyes, though Michigan has occasionally pulled off upsets or kept it closer than expected. Here are some notable games where Ohio State was favored by 20 or more points against Michigan, along with the outcomes:
1. 2008 - Ohio State 42, Michigan 7
- Point Spread: Ohio State was favored by 20+ points.
- Result: Ohio State dominated Michigan in this game, winning 42–7 in Columbus. Michigan was having a down year under coach Rich Rodriguez, and the Buckeyes had a very strong team.
- Analysis: Ohio State covered the spread easily in this blowout.
2. 2018 - Ohio State 62, Michigan 39
- Point Spread: Ohio State was favored by about 15–18 points, but some bookmakers had them slightly above 20.
- Result: Ohio State won 62–39 in a thrilling, high-scoring game. Michigan entered as a top-5 team, but Ohio State, led by quarterback Dwayne Haskins, outperformed expectations with a record-breaking offensive performance.
- Analysis: While Ohio State was heavily favored, Michigan kept the game competitive for most of the first half. However, Ohio State pulled away in the second half, and covered the spread comfortably.
3. 2006 - Ohio State 42, Michigan 39
- Point Spread: Ohio State was favored by 6–7 points, not quite 20+ points, but still a heavy favorite as the number 1 team.
- Result: Ohio State won 42–39 in a thrilling, classic matchup that had huge national title implications. While not quite the 20+ point spread, it was a heavily favored Ohio State team.
- Analysis: Despite Michigan's strong performance, Ohio State narrowly won this game in what is often considered one of the best games in college football history.
4. 2007 - Ohio State 14, Michigan 3
- Point Spread: Ohio State was favored by about 20 points.
- Result: Ohio State won 14–3, but the game was much closer than anticipated. Michigan’s defense played tough, and Ohio State struggled offensively, despite being heavily favored.
- Analysis: While Ohio State won, they failed to cover the spread, and the game was much lower scoring than many expected.
5. 1996 - Ohio State 13, Michigan 9
- Point Spread: Ohio State was favored by 20+ points.
- Result: Ohio State won 13–9, but it was a much closer game than the point spread suggested. Michigan’s defense played well, and the Buckeyes struggled to cover the large spread.
- Analysis: Ohio State won, but failed to cover the 20-point spread in a low-scoring, defensive battle.
6. 1998 - Ohio State 31, Michigan 16
- Point Spread: Ohio State was favored by around 20 points.
- Result: Ohio State won 31–16 in Columbus, covering the spread. Michigan was a competitive team, but Ohio State had a strong offensive showing.
- Analysis: Ohio State comfortably covered the spread with a solid win.
Key Takeaways:
- Ohio State Dominance: In most instances where the Buckeyes were favored by 20 or more, they typically won the game, and in some cases, the victory was quite dominant (such as in 2008 and 2018).
- Close Calls: There have been some occasions, especially in years where Michigan had a strong team (like in 2007 and 1996), where Ohio State won but did not cover the spread or the game was closer than expected.
- Big Wins and Blowouts: When Ohio State has been favored heavily, it often resulted in blowouts, particularly in years when Michigan was rebuilding or struggling (such as 2008, 2018).
ESPN's computer model:
The 'Matchup Predictor' powered by ESPN's analytics Buckeyes, who have a 92% chance to win the game.
In conclusion, while Ohio State has often been favored heavily in these matchups, the rivalry has still managed to provide some surprises, with Michigan occasionally keeping it closer than expected or even pulling off a shock upset.
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