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Miami's Losses and near loss common Stats

Miami is without a doubt a good team. In their losses and near loss, is there some common thread?  


Miami's defense was elite overall, ranking top-10 nationally in yards per play allowed (~4.51) and total defense (~277-281 yards per game average), but opponents exceeded 275 yards in these games:

Vs. Florida State (Win, 28-22): Allowed 404 yards (highest of the season; FSU had 272 passing + 132 rushing despite 3 turnovers).

Vs. Louisville (Loss, 21-24): Allowed 367 yards, 248 passing. 

Vs. SMU (Loss, 20-26 OT): Allowed 388 yards (including 365 passing yards).

One additional game (likely a win against a lesser opponent or close contest) where yards allowed were in the 275-350 range, based on season totals and averages


On Offense:

Offensive Performance in the Loss to Louisville (21-24)

Points Scored: 21 (below season average)

Total Yards: 334 (below season average)

Passing Yards: 271 (slightly above season average, but inefficient)

Rushing Yards: 63 (well below season average, indicating a stalled ground game)

Turnovers: 4 (all interceptions; far above season average)

Key Players:

QB Carson Beck: 25/35 (71.4% completion), 271 yards, 0 TDs, 4 INTs (the interceptions were pivotal, directly contributing to Louisville's scoring opportunities and ending Miami's home win streak)

RBs: Mark Fletcher Jr. (8 carries, 18 yards, 1 TD); Jordan Lyle (5 carries, 15 yards); Malachi Toney (2 carries, 14 yards, 1 TD)

Receivers: Malachi Toney (9 receptions, 135 yards); CJ Daniels (7 receptions, 74 yards); Keelan Marion (5 receptions, 33 yards)1b0404df7fd4

Offensive Performance in the Loss to SMU (20-26 OT)

Points Scored: 20 (below season average)

Total Yards: 433 (slightly above season average)

Passing Yards: 274 (slightly above season average)

Rushing Yards: 159 (near season average)

Turnovers: 2 (both interceptions; above season average, with one in overtime from the 5-yard line sealing the loss)

Key Players:

QB Carson Beck: 26/38 (68.4% completion), 274 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs (QBR 78.0)

Florida State 

Passing Yards Allowed: 241 (on 20/27 completions, ~74% completion rate)

Rushing Yards Allowed: ~97 (Miami's season-low

 rushing output)

Receivers — Malachi Toney (true freshman: 7 receptions, 107 yards, 2 

Summary

Mark Fletcher had eight carries for 18 yards against Louisville led to dependence on the quarterback to win the game, and the four interceptions. A season low, at the time, of 97 yards against Florida State led to a near loss.  367 or more yards were given up in both losses, and the close Florida State game.  A key difference with the Florida State game is that there was no turnovers for Miami. Miami averaged giving up less than 271 yards per game.  

Recent Miami Bowl Games

Season

Bowl Game

Opponent

Result

Score

Notes

2015

Sun Bowl

Washington State

Loss

14–20


2016

Russell Athletic Bowl

West Virginia

Win

31–14

First bowl win in 10 years (since 2006)

2017

Orange Bowl

Wisconsin

Loss

24–34

New Year's Six bowl

2018

Pinstripe Bowl

Wisconsin

Loss

3–35


2019

Independence Bowl

Louisiana Tech

Loss

0–14

Walk-on QB started due to injuries

2021

(No bowl)

7–5 record, but no invitation (COVID factors)

2023

Pinstripe Bowl

Rutgers

Loss

24–31

2024

Pop-Tarts Bowl

Iowa State

Loss

21–42

UM vs Big Ten 0-3, 1-6 overall.




2025

Cotton Bowl (CFP Quarterfinal)

Ohio State

Upcoming

—


So how does Ohio State beat Miami? 

Make them one dimensional on offense, win the turnover battle, and hit their average yards per game day this season (440 yds/gm). 





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