Ole Miss vs The University of Miami CFP semi-final game

 CFP Semifinal Showdown: Ole Miss Rebels vs. Miami Hurricanes in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl

College Football Playoff semifinal odds

Spread: Miami -3

Over/under: 52

Moneyline: Miami -160, Ole Miss +135

Ole Miss is 1-1 ATS as an underdog this season, and both games were against Georgia. The Rebels were 5-1 S/U in games with a spread of seven points or less. The Hurricanes are 2-0 S/U and 2-0 ATS when favored by seven points or less. 

The stage is set for an electrifying College Football Playoff semifinal as the No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels (13-1) take on the No. 10 Miami Hurricanes (12-2) in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on January 8, 2026, at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. Both teams have battled through grueling paths to reach this point, with Ole Miss fresh off a thrilling 39-34 upset victory over Georgia in the Sugar Bowl, and Miami advancing after a dominant 24-14 win against Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl. This marks the first meeting between these programs since 1951, promising a clash of high-powered offenses and opportunistic defenses in what could be one of the most entertaining games of the postseason.

Ole Miss, now led by first-time head coach Pete Golding after Lane Kiffin's departure to LSU following the regular season, has relied on explosive playmaking and a resilient defense to overcome their lone loss and avenge it in the quarterfinals. Miami, under Mario Cristobal, has rebuilt with key transfers and homegrown talent, emphasizing physicality in the trenches. Early betting lines have Miami as 3.5-point favorites with an over/under of 52.5, reflecting the Hurricanes' perceived edge in experience at key positions. Below, we break down the matchup position by position to assess where each team holds the advantage.

Quarterback: Advantage Miami

Miami's Carson Beck, a transfer from Georgia, brings elite arm talent and poise to the table. The senior quarterback has thrown for over 3,500 yards this season with a completion rate north of 65%, showcasing his ability to dissect defenses in high-stakes games. His experience in SEC battles translates seamlessly to the ACC, where he's elevated Miami's passing attack. On the other side, Ole Miss turns to sophomore Trinidad Chambliss, who has shown flashes of brilliance, including heroic drives in the Sugar Bowl win over Georgia. However, his relative inexperience could be tested by Miami's aggressive defense. Beck's veteran savvy gives the Hurricanes a clear edge here.

Running Backs: Advantage Miami

Mark Fletcher Jr. has been a workhorse for Miami, rushing for over 1,200 yards and providing a reliable ground game that complements Beck's passing. His vision and burst make him a threat in both power and zone schemes. Ole Miss counters with Kewan Lacy, who has emerged as a solid contributor, but the Rebels' backfield has shown occasional inconsistencies against elite fronts. Miami's ability to control the clock with Fletcher tips this group in their favor.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends: Advantage Ole Miss

This is where Ole Miss shines. The Rebels boast a deep receiving corps featuring transfers like Harrison Wallace III (from Penn State) and others, alongside talented recruits. Wallace's route-running and contested-catch ability have produced big plays, with the group combining for significant production. Miami's receivers, including Malachi Toney, are talented but less proven in high-volume scenarios. Ole Miss's weapons give Chambliss more options to exploit mismatches, earning them the nod in this explosive category.

Offensive Line: Advantage Miami

Miami's front, anchored by standout tackle Francis Mauigoa, has been a pillar of strength, allowing minimal sacks and paving lanes for Fletcher. Their physicality and cohesion have improved under Cristobal's recruiting emphasis. Ole Miss's line, rebuilt after some departures, features solid performers but has shown vulnerabilities in pressure situations. The Hurricanes' trench dominance could dictate the pace, giving them the advantage.

Defensive Line: Advantage Miami

Rueben Bain headlines Miami's disruptive front, with double-digit sacks and constant pressure that has rattled opposing quarterbacks throughout the season. Supported by Akheem Mesidor and others, this unit ranks among the top in the nation for tackles for loss. Ole Miss's edge rushers are capable, but the Rebels' line has been inconsistent against elite offenses. Miami's depth and production provide a decisive edge.

Linebackers: Advantage Even

Both teams feature athletic playmakers here. Miami brings speed and tackling efficiency, effectively shutting down runs and covering in space. Ole Miss counters with a versatile group that has improved dramatically, contributing to key stops in their playoff run. Neither side dominates, making this a push in a battle of sideline-to-sideline athletes.

Secondary: Advantage Ole Miss

The Rebels' backfield has been opportunistic, forcing turnovers and limiting big plays, as evidenced in their harassment of Georgia's passers in the Sugar Bowl. Miami's secondary is solid but has occasionally been burned on deep balls. Ole Miss's ball-hawking ability gives them a slight upper hand against Beck's aerial attack.

Special Teams: Advantage Even

Both units have been reliable without standout stars. Miami's kicking game has been consistent in clutch moments, while Ole Miss benefits from dynamic returners, including game-changing field position shifts in the playoffs. No clear separator here, though field position could prove pivotal in a close contest.

Coaching: Advantage Miami

Mario Cristobal's emphasis on physicality and in-game management has propelled Miami through upsets in the playoffs. His staff's cohesion and experience in big moments provide stability. Pete Golding, in his first head coaching role after being promoted mid-playoff run, has shown promise with strong defensive schemes but lacks the proven track record in high-stakes offensive adjustments. Cristobal's edge here could be crucial.

In a game that promises fireworks, Miami's advantages in the trenches, at quarterback, and on the sidelines should outweigh Ole Miss's explosive passing game and resilient spirit under interim-turned-permanent leadership. The Hurricanes' physical style will wear down the Rebels in the second half, leading to a hard-fought victory.

Prediction: Miami 34, Ole Miss 28