Gemini
Based on the remaining 2026 regular-season schedule, current team strength, and historical power ratings for the program, here are the approximate win probabilities game-by-game for the Ohio State Buckeyes from this point forward:
| Date | Opponent | Location | Estimated Win Probability |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| **Oct 10, 2026** | Maryland Terrapins | Home (Columbus) | **92%** |
| **Oct 17, 2026** | Indiana Hoosiers | Away (Bloomington) | **80%** |
| **Oct 31, 2026** | USC Trojans | Away (Los Angeles) | **65%** |
| **Nov 7, 2026** | Oregon Ducks | Home (Columbus) | **55%** |
| **Nov 14, 2026** | Northwestern Wildcats | Home (Columbus) | **95%** |
| **Nov 21, 2026** | Nebraska Cornhuskers | Away (Lincoln) | **75%** |
| **Nov 28, 2026** | Michigan Wolverines | Home (Columbus) | **60%** |
### Key Takeaways:
* **Heavy Favorites:** Games against Maryland and Northwestern carry very high win probabilities due to roster advantages and playing at home.
* **Tough Stretch:** The back-to-back blocks featuring road trips to USC and a massive home clash against Oregon will likely dictate their ceiling in the Big Ten race and College Football Playoff seeding.
* **The Regular Season Finale:** The rivalry matchup against Michigan in Columbus traditionally hovers near a toss-up depending on late-season health, but Ohio State generally commands a slight statistical edgplaying at home.
ChatGPT
Yes. After watching how the season has developed, I’d be more optimistic about Ohio State now than I was before the Iowa game.
Ohio State is 4–1, ranked No. 5, and just went into Kinnick Stadium and beat No. 14 Iowa 31–14. That was an important statement win, particularly because the Buckeyes controlled the game after halftime. Jeremiah Smith’s 11 catches for 206 yards and another record-setting performance are a major reason I think this team has a very high ceiling. (Reuters)
My prediction for each remaining game
| Game | My prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Maryland | Ohio State 45–10 | 97% |
| at Indiana | Ohio State 34–27 | 65% |
| at USC | Ohio State 35–24 | 72% |
| Oregon | Ohio State 31–24 | 62% |
| Northwestern | Ohio State 45–10 | 95% |
| at Nebraska | Ohio State 34–17 | 82% |
| Michigan | Ohio State 31–17 | 78% |
My projected regular-season record: 11–1
The Indiana game is the swing game for me. Indiana is currently ranked No. 7 and unbeaten, so Bloomington is the place I could most easily see Ohio State getting caught. Ohio State is favored by roughly 5½ in current power-model projections, but Indiana is good enough to win that game. (Punt and Rally)
The other game that concerns me is Oregon. Oregon comes to Columbus, which is a huge advantage for Ohio State, but the Ducks are currently No. 13. I think that's a legitimate CFP-caliber matchup.
If Ohio State goes 11–1...
I think the Buckeyes are almost certainly in the College Football Playoff.
And here's where I get particularly bullish:
Ohio State could still make the national championship game.
The combination of Julian Sayin + Jeremiah Smith is becoming extremely difficult to defend. Sayin has been efficient, and Smith is playing at a Heisman level. The Iowa game also showed me that the defense may be improving at exactly the right time. (ESPN)
My current postseason projection:
Regular season: 11–1
Big Ten Championship: Ohio State has about a 55–60% chance of reaching it
CFP quarterfinal: Win
CFP semifinal: Win probability ~55%
National championship: ~25–30% chance
Most likely final outcome: CFP semifinalist or national championship-game appearance
The biggest thing that could derail this prediction is the run defense. It improved against Iowa, but it was still a weakness entering this week. (Punt and Rally)
My gut prediction right now: Ohio State finishes 11–1, beats Michigan, reaches the Big Ten Championship, and enters the CFP as a top-4 seed. If Jeremiah Smith stays healthy, I would not want to play this Buckeye team in January.
Grok
Ohio State (currently 4-1 overall, 2-0 Big Ten, No. 5 AP) is well-positioned after a close loss at No. 4 Texas and a solid road win at then-No. 14 Iowa. They have a high-powered passing attack led by QB Julian Sayin and WR Jeremiah Smith (who has posted massive receiving numbers, including multiple 200-yard games), a capable run game, and a defense that has limited opponents effectively.
Remaining schedule and predictions
Here’s a game-by-game outlook for the rest of the regular season (as of early October 2026):
Oct. 10 vs. Maryland (home): Maryland is 2-3 and 0-2 in conference. This is a clear mismatch. **Ohio State win (comfortable, likely by multiple scores).
Oct. 17 at No. 7 Indiana (road): Biggest remaining challenge. Indiana is 5-0 with a long winning streak and looks like a legitimate contender (strong overall and efficient on both sides). Road environment makes it tougher. Expect a competitive, high-stakes game. **Slight lean to Ohio State based on talent and recent form, but this is the most likely spot for a second loss if things go sideways.
Oct. 31 at No. 19 USC (road): USC is 5-1 (one loss to Oregon) and can be explosive but inconsistent. Travel and a solid Trojans roster make it nontrivial, yet Ohio State’s overall edge should carry them. **Ohio State win.
Nov. 7 vs. No. 13 Oregon (home): Oregon is 3-1 after an early stumble and a nice win at USC. Home field in Columbus is a major factor. **Ohio State win in a high-profile matchup.
Nov. 14 vs. Northwestern (home): Northwestern is respectable (around 3-1) but not on Ohio State’s level. **Ohio State win.
Nov. 21 at Nebraska (road): Nebraska is 5-0 and playing well (especially at home), so it’s a potential trap. Still, the Buckeyes’ talent advantage should prevail. **Ohio State win.
Nov. 28 vs. Michigan (home): Michigan is 3-2 and 0-2 in the Big Ten, struggling offensively and with recent losses. The rivalry adds intensity, but Ohio State should handle business at home. **Ohio State win.
Overall season projection
Most likely: 11-1 regular season (one loss already to Texas). They would be heavy favorites to reach the Big Ten Championship Game and a strong College Football Playoff contender (likely a top-4 or top-5 seed depending on other results and strength of schedule).
A second loss (most plausible at Indiana, with smaller chances at USC or Nebraska) would leave them 10-2 and still very much in the playoff conversation as a high-end at-large, especially with the quality wins already on the résumé. Winning out remains realistic given their offensive firepower and the home games against Oregon and Michigan.
Key variables include continued health for Sayin/Smith and the secondary, avoiding turnovers in close games, and how the rest of the Big Ten shakes out (Indiana and Nebraska start undefeated; Oregon and USC remain dangerous). Ohio State’s current trajectory points to a deep postseason run if they take care of the expected wins.
Claude AI
I'll look up Ohio State's current record and remaining schedule, then build the predictions from that.
Prediction: Ohio State finishes the regular season 10-2 (7-2 in the Big Ten), with the one new loss at Indiana, and makes the College Football Playoff as an at-large team.
Ohio State is 4-1 and ranked No. 5 after beating No. 14 Iowa 31-14 on the road. The only loss was 24-23 at Texas. The offense is passing-heavy (Sayin has thrown for 320+ yards in three of five games), and the defense has allowed about 12 points a game against FBS opponents.
| Date | Opponent | Pick | Win chance | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 | Maryland (home) | W | ~96% | Maryland is 2-3, and Ohio State is 9-0 all-time against them. |
| Oct 17 | at No. 7 Indiana | L | ~45% | Indiana beat Ohio State in last year's Big Ten title game. Ohio State has won 29 of 32 in Bloomington, so this is close to a coin flip. |
| Oct 24 | Bye | |||
| Oct 31 | at No. 19 USC | W | ~62% | A night game at the Coliseum, a historically tough road trip for the Buckeyes. |
| Nov 7 | No. 13 Oregon (home) | W | ~62% | The best home test of the year. |
| Nov 14 | Northwestern (home) | W | ~98% | |
| Nov 21 | at Nebraska | W | ~88% | A trap-game risk, but the talent gap is large. |
| Nov 28 | Michigan (home) | W | ~80% | Ohio State has won this game four straight, and it's at home. |
Those odds add up to roughly 5.4 more wins, so the most likely outcomes are 10-2 or 11-1. The Indiana game is the biggest swing. A win there makes 11-1 and a first-round bye realistic, while a loss to both Indiana and USC drops Ohio State to 9-3 and into bubble territory.
The final record matters less than how the four games against ranked teams go. Indiana, USC and Oregon are the three tests on this list, and the Buckeyes are only about 55-65% favorites in each, so going 2-1 is more likely than 3-0.
On the CFP, 10-2 with that schedule should be enough for an at-large spot, probably as a 5-8 seed that hosts a first-round game. The one loss at Texas and the strength of schedule help, though a 9-3 finish would make it a coin flip.
I'm leaning on opponent rankings and records from just before this weekend, so they may have shifted. I'd revisit the Indiana and USC picks after Maryland, since injuries to Sayin or Jeremiah Smith would change everything.
Sources:
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